The Wargame: Inside the Decades-Long Saga That Left the UK Shockingly Unprepared for War
Key Takeways:
- Reform UK maintains its dominance in Derbyshire — The party held the Long Eaton North seat despite a cabinet resignation and low voter turnout, preserving its strong 42-seat majority on the county council.
- Conservatives show signs of local recovery — Although they narrowly missed victory by just 23 votes, the Conservative performance was significantly better than national polling suggests.
- Resignation fallout influenced voter sentiment — Jack Bradley’s sudden departure was viewed negatively by residents, but did not ultimately shift the outcome against Reform UK.
- Turnout reflects voter fatigue — With only 29% of eligible voters participating, engagement dropped sharply, pointing to wider political apathy and election fatigue.
- Local issues remain decisive — While national politics played a background role, both parties emphasised that doorstep conversations centred on local concerns such as services, SEND provision, and community support.
Reform UK has successfully defended its seat on Derbyshire County Council after a closely contested by-election in the Long Eaton North division, triggered by the sudden resignation of one of its cabinet members. The result, delivered by a narrow margin of just 23 votes over the Conservatives, underscores both the party’s continuing local strength and the shifting political dynamics across Derbyshire.
The by-election, held only seven months after the major round of local elections in May, followed the departure of Reform councillor Jack Bradley—formerly the cabinet member responsible for education and SEND (special educational needs and disabilities). His resignation was described by the party as being for “personal reasons,” though it was reportedly not well received by some local residents.
Despite this backdrop, Reform UK candidate Owen Ferron secured the seat with 745 votes, placing him ahead of Conservative contender Dan Pitt, who received 722. Labour finished third with 579 votes, followed by the Green Party, Liberal Democrats, and Derbyshire Community Party.
The win ensures Reform UK retains its substantial majority on Derbyshire County Council, now holding 42 of the 64 seats, with one more vacancy yet to be filled.
A By-Election Shaped by Local Fatigue and National Tensions
The contest saw a significantly lower turnout—29%, with 500 fewer votes cast compared to May’s local elections. While mid-term by-elections often see reduced participation, the numbers reflect a local electorate fatigued by repeated trips to the ballot box and frustrated by political turbulence.
Reform UK's group whip and Ilkeston North councillor Dan Price said the result marked a strong endorsement of the party’s work locally:
“It is a fantastic result for us, it was very close. Owen is going to be a fantastic councillor for the Long Eaton community.”
He acknowledged, however, that Bradley’s resignation created difficulty on the doorstep:
“People on the doorstep were disappointed with the resignation of Jack Bradley, which was not well-received in Long Eaton North.”
Despite this, Reform’s ability to hold the seat reflects the party’s entrenched support in the area, even when national politics—and internal party issues—hover in the background.
Price emphasised the importance of focusing on local issues while recognising that broader political narratives inevitably seep into voter sentiment:
“We have focussed on local issues but national issues do creep in, and people need to understand what a county councillor is responsible for.”
Conservatives Narrow the Gap in a Symbolic Boost
For the Conservatives, the result—though technically a loss—was interpreted as a modest victory in terms of momentum. Conservative candidate Dan Pitt, a former borough councillor, framed the 23-vote gap as an encouraging sign:
“Nationally we are 18 points adrift in the polls and here we were 23 votes short. We have a record of delivering locally which sits separately from national politics.”
His comments highlight a growing Conservative strategy across local by-elections: distilling campaigns down to hyper-local issues in an attempt to distance themselves from UK-wide polling struggles.
With the national Conservative Party consistently trailing Labour and facing an uphill battle ahead of the next general election, even marginal improvements at local level are now closely scrutinised by party strategists searching for signs of stabilisation.
A Closer Look at the Vote Breakdown
The full results are as follows:
Owen Ferron (Reform UK) – 745
Dan Pitt (Conservative) – 722
George Carr-Williamson (Labour) – 579
Mell Catori (Green Party) – 314
Samuel Briggs (Liberal Democrat) – 154
Cheryl Pidgeon (Derbyshire Community Party) – 141
The contest was predominantly a two-horse race between Reform UK and the Conservatives, with Labour maintaining a meaningful but distant share of the vote. The results also reflect the complexity of Derbyshire’s political makeup: a mix of former Labour strongholds, Conservative rural seats, and increasingly Reform-leaning towns.
Long Eaton North itself has become a focal point of that shift. Once more reliably divided between Labour and the Conservatives, it has, in recent years, become fertile ground for Reform UK, whose messaging on local services, community identity, and regional investment resonates with many residents.
Reform UK’s Dominance in Derbyshire: A Continuing Trend
With 42 out of 64 seats on Derbyshire County Council, Reform UK maintains control of the authority by a wide margin—an unusual and notable foothold for a party that, nationally, remains smaller than Labour or the Conservatives.
This dominance reflects a unique local political landscape:
Dissatisfaction with mainstream parties has been particularly acute in parts of Derbyshire.
Local campaign messaging from Reform has focused on potholes, public transport, SEND provision, and council spending—issues that directly affect daily life.
Community-level organisation, including significant canvassing efforts, has allowed the party to deeply embed its presence.
However, the by-election also highlights potential vulnerabilities. Bradley’s resignation, which Reform representatives admit was unpopular with constituents, risked puncturing the party’s image of cohesion and reliability.
That Reform held the seat despite this turbulence strengthens its mandate but also signals a need for stability and clear communication within the ranks.
SEND and Education: A Cabinet Vacancy with Consequences
The resignation of Jack Bradley, previously the council’s cabinet member for education and SEND, left a critical portfolio temporarily without leadership. SEND provision is a key area of concern across Derbyshire, with waiting lists, funding gaps, and parental frustrations regularly making local headlines.
Although Reform has not publicly elaborated on Bradley’s departure beyond “personal reasons,” the sensitivity of the SEND role means the vacancy has attracted scrutiny. Providers and families will now look to the council’s leadership to confirm Bradley’s replacement and outline how existing SEND policies will continue without disruption.
The by-election did not offer clarity on this, as Ferron declined to speak to the media following his election. The Local Democracy Reporting Service reported he was “unavailable,” leaving questions about his immediate priorities and his vision for Long Eaton North.
Why Turnout Dropped: Voter Apathy or Timing?
Turnout falling to 29% suggests broader disengagement, but several factors likely contributed:
1. The Shock Resignation
Voters may have been discouraged by the sudden departure of their previous representative, feeling unstable political ground.
2. Election Fatigue
Having already voted in May, some residents simply did not prioritise another trip to the polls—especially without a high-profile national contest driving turnout.
3. Limited Awareness
By-elections often attract less attention unless a major party risks losing a symbolic seat. In this case, Reform was broadly expected to hold its position.
4. Seasonal Timing
Winter by-elections, particularly those called quickly, often struggle to mobilise voters.
While low turnout is common in such circumstances, the drop of 500 votes is notable, and all parties will be examining what this means for engagement ahead of future elections.
What the Result Means for Derbyshire Politics
The by--election has several immediate implications:
Reform UK Consolidates Its Control
Holding Long Eaton North prevents any erosion of the party’s majority and reinforces its claim to be the most influential force in Derbyshire’s local politics.
Conservatives Show Signs of Life
While still trailing nationally, the Conservatives’ narrow miss demonstrates potential for recovery in certain areas—especially where local candidates have strong reputations.
Labour’s Position Remains Mixed
Labour’s third-place finish underscores challenges in regions where Reform pulls support from both traditional Labour and Conservative voters.
SEND Leadership Remains a Question
Families will want swift clarity on the next cabinet member responsible for SEND services.
Turnout Highlights Political Disengagement
The low turnout signals growing voter apathy, raising questions about local engagement strategies.
A Local Story with National Echoes
While this is ultimately a local by-election, the result feeds into wider national narratives:
Reform UK continues to translate national polling strength into local wins.
The Conservatives’ result mirrors their broader struggle but also hints at resilience.
Labour’s inability to challenge for first place in some towns remains a strategic concern.
With a general election looming within the next couple of years, parties will analyse results like Long Eaton North closely to understand where momentum is building—and where it is slipping.
Conclusion: A Tight But Symbolic Hold for Reform UK
Reform UK’s ability to defend its Long Eaton North seat, despite internal complications and a low-turnout climate, represents both a victory and a warning.
The party remains dominant across Derbyshire, but the narrow margin indicates that future contests may be more competitive than the sweeping results of past elections suggest. The Conservatives, while still under pressure nationally, will take encouragement from their improved performance. Labour and other parties remain on the sidelines, needing fresh strategies to reclaim influence in Reform strongholds.
For residents of Long Eaton North, the immediate focus now shifts to how Owen Ferron will represent their concerns, engage with local issues, and help stabilise leadership following Bradley’s departure.
Reform UK has held its ground—but the terrain around it is shifting.
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