Ahead of the Budget, Are the Super-Rich Really Fleeing the UK Over Taxes?
Key Takeaways:
- No evidence of a millionaire exodus — Despite high-profile cases, experts say there is no reliable data showing a large-scale flight of wealthy individuals from the UK due to Labour’s tax policies.
- Most wealthy individuals are staying put — Wealth managers report that clients still prioritise the UK’s schools, culture, legal system and business environment over potential tax savings abroad.
- Tensions are rising, not departures — The real issue is growing uncertainty among entrepreneurs about future tax changes, making the upcoming budget a critical moment for maintaining business confidence.
As the UK waits for Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget announcement on November 26, rumours continue to swirl about the super-rich packing their bags and abandoning Britain because of higher taxes. Newspaper headlines and political commentators have embraced the idea of an exodus of wealthy individuals, driven by fear of tougher fiscal measures under the Labour government.
But is Britain truly witnessing a dramatic flight of millionaires?
The short answer from most experts: there’s no solid evidence to support it.
What does exist, however, is a growing sense of unease among entrepreneurs and high earners — one the government will need to address as it finalises its tax plans.
The Race to Leave Before Budget Day
David Lesperance, a Canadian wealth adviser now based in Poland, describes the pressure some affluent Britons feel as the budget approaches. One of his clients, “John”, is in a rush to relocate to Dublin before November 26. John, who built a company worth approximately £70m, expects to sell it soon and wants to avoid a large capital gains tax bill in the UK.
Because his children are already at university, relocating is logistically possible. And for John, Ireland’s non-domicile regime — which can exempt foreign-sourced income from Irish taxation — is appealing.
“We’ve been moving fast to organise his immediate departure to Ireland,” Lesperance explained. “With higher taxes looming, the costs of leaving early are a rounding error.”
According to him, John is not an isolated case.
High-Profile Departures Raise Alarm Bells
Celebrity and business figures have helped fuel the narrative of a wealth flight:
- Former England footballer Rio Ferdinand and his wife Kate moved to Dubai, openly citing tax pressures as a contributing factor.
- Nassef Sawiris, billionaire co-owner of Aston Villa, shifted his residency to Italy and the UAE, saying that many in his circle are considering similar moves.
- Herman Narula, the 37-year-old founder of tech firm Improbable and estimated to be worth around £700m, recently announced his relocation to Dubai.
He partly blamed what he described as an unpredictable environment for entrepreneurs — including talk of a proposed “exit tax” for departing high earners.
Even though Labour has signalled that the exit tax idea is off the table for now, concerns remain.
These high-profile departures prompted more than a dozen wealthy business owners — including Charles Tyrwhitt founder Nick Wheeler and jewellery designer Annoushka Ducas — to publish an open letter urging Reeves to consider the cumulative impact of changing tax policies.
“There is alarming evidence that some entrepreneurs are leaving the UK,” the letter warns, adding that the government must avoid undermining the country’s attractiveness to business founders.
Wealth Taxes and Public Pressure
The Labour government has faced mounting calls from unions, economists and campaigners to tax wealth more aggressively. Protesters from Green New Deal Rising rallied outside the Treasury on October 27, urging the government to target the “super-rich” in the upcoming budget.
Inside Westminster, speculation is growing about possible adjustments to:
- property taxes
- capital gains taxes
- pension tax relief
- inheritance tax
- private equity rules (particularly the “carried interest” loophole)
Last year’s budget already angered many high earners.
Reeves imposed changes to Capital Gains Tax, Entrepreneur’s Relief, and employer National Insurance contributions — measures that Labour argues make the system fairer.
These came shortly after the previous Conservative government had abolished the non-dom regime, historically a major tax incentive for internationally mobile wealthy individuals.
Rumours vs Reality: What the Data Says
Despite rising anxiety among high earners, no reliable dataset currently confirms a significant outflow of wealthy individuals from the UK.
According to Mark Bou Mansour of the Tax Justice Network:
“The most recent HMRC data on non-doms shows the number leaving the UK is in line with or below official forecasts.”
In other words, departures are within the normal range and not unusually high.
He argues the narrative of a mass exodus is exaggerated and politically charged:
“Talking about whether the superrich will move if we tax can be a distraction from discussing the harms to economies and democracies that arise from not taxing extreme wealth.”
Research Suggests the Wealthy Rarely Move for Tax Alone
A 2024 study by the London School of Economics (LSE) found that high-net-worth individuals place a surprisingly high value on:
- London’s cultural life
- elite schools and universities
- private healthcare
- established professional networks
- social ties and family stability
These were often ranked above tax considerations.
“There’s strong evidence that the super-rich don’t choose to relocate just to pay less tax,” said Mansour.
The Dubious Report Behind Many Headlines
Many media stories predicting an exodus of UK millionaires trace back to a report by Henley & Partners, a firm that specialises in residency and passport advice. After scrutiny, its methodology was revised — but not before its original claims were widely circulated.
The lack of robust data has allowed sensational claims to flourish, experts say.
So Who Is Leaving — and Why?
Lesperance maintains that while the absolute number of departures may be small, those who leave contribute disproportionately to the UK’s tax base.
“The average non-dom contributes about £220,000 a year in tax — six or seven times the UK average,” he claimed.
“These are super contributors.”
His clients moving abroad have chosen destinations such as Milan and Dubai, known for favourable tax environments.
“As one of my clients said, ‘London’s nice, but it’s not that nice.’”
But Wealth Managers Say the Vast Majority Are Staying
Michelle White, head of private office at Rathbones, paints a very different picture.
In her view, while many wealthy clients could move, most have not. The narratives of open floodgates simply haven’t matched reality.
“Since these articles started coming out, we haven’t seen that,” she said.
She emphasises the continuing strengths of the UK:
- renowned schools
- a stable legal system
- a deep financial services sector
- strong business infrastructure
Those who have left often fall into specific categories:
1. Business owners preparing for a sale
Some plan to sell their company in the next two years and want to avoid capital gains tax.
2. Private equity and hedge fund partners
High earners expecting large payouts may prefer to be non-resident at the time of receiving them.
3. Globally mobile entrepreneurs
These individuals already own properties overseas and can relocate with minimal disruption.
Most others stay and rely instead on careful tax planning.
“Many ultimately decide the UK is the best place to raise their families,” White said.
A Growing Tension — but Not a Crisis
While the evidence does not support a mass departure of the wealthy, the political environment is clearly strained. Entrepreneurs and investors say uncertainty is driving concern more than the tax levels themselves.
For a Labour government positioning itself as pro-business, these tensions represent a strategic challenge.
What’s at Stake?
Even a small number of wealthy departures could reduce tax revenues disproportionately.
Yet failing to address inequality carries political and social risks as well.
The upcoming budget must balance these competing pressures:
- reassure entrepreneurs
- meet fiscal gaps left by years of high public spending
- respond to public demand for fairness
- maintain the UK’s global competitiveness
Conclusion: A Narrative Running Ahead of the Facts
For now, the idea of a mass exodus of British millionaires remains largely anecdotal and unsupported by hard data. A handful of high-profile individuals have left — and others are considering it — but experts caution against drawing sweeping conclusions.
In reality:
- the data does not show a spike in departures
- wealth managers say most clients remain in the UK
- mobility is easiest for those already internationally positioned
- the UK retains powerful pull factors, especially for families
What’s undeniably true is that trust between the government and the business community is under strain. As Reeves prepares to deliver the budget, her challenge will be to calm fears without compromising Labour’s broader fiscal and social ambitions.
Whether Britain’s super-rich stay or go may ultimately depend less on tax rates than on whether they feel secure, valued and confident in the country’s long-term direction.
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